The college football season is almost upon us and there is a mixed bag of candidates who are looking to make a push in what will be the last year of a 4-team college football playoff. Like most years, the usual suspects are favorited to make a playoff appearance, though I am not sold that this upcoming season will be a regular old season. In fact, I would go as far to say that there are possibly 10 teams with a legitimate shot at making the final 4. With roster turnover, new recruits, and the free agency (oops, I meant transfer portal), there are several legit contenders to this year’s championship, and I am going to look at some of those teams and give you my prediction for the college football playoff this upcoming season. Here is my prediction for the final top 15 teams in descending order.
Odds to make the playoffs from Odds Shark Online Sportsbook for the 2023-2024 season:
1. Georgia Bulldogs -250
2. Ohio State Buckeyes -125
3. Michigan Wolverines +105
4. Alabama Crimson Tide +135
5. USC Trojans +260
6. Florida State Seminoles +280
7. Penn State Nittany Lions +300
8. Clemson Tigers +320
9. Texas Longhorns +320
10. LSU Tigers +370
11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish +250
12. Oregon Ducks +500
13. Washington Huskies +600
14. Oklahoma Sooners +650
15. Tennessee Volunteers +700
My Top 15 for the end of the 2023/2024 College Football Season:
Honorable Mentions:
Washington Huskies, Oklahoma Sooners, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Clemson Tigers, Penn State Nittany Lions, Texas Longhorns
15. Washington Huskies
This Huskies team brings back transfer QB Michael Penix Jr., who had a hell of a season last year. Penix Jr. threw for 4600 yards and 31 touchdowns, leading his team to an impressive 11-2 record. If not for an ugly loss to a poor Arizona State team, last season could have seen the Washington team finish at the top of the Pac 12. This year, Washington plays a similar schedule to last season, and has a chance to run the conference, but they have to top the likes of Oregon and USC to do so, and I am not a believer in a B-tier Pac 12 team making a coveted playoff spot this year.
14. Oklahoma Sooners
I know that throwing a “Blue Blood” like Oklahoma at a ranking of 14 would be a crime to some, I truly cannot get past last season’s woes. A 6-7 record is not one college football fans are used to, but I will give them the benefit of the doubt with it being Brent Venables first season as head coach. This season, expectations are higher, but I am keeping my doubts at the forefront. This season the Sooners will have a four-game stretch that sees them play the UCF Knights at home and the Texas Longhorns, Kansas Jayhawks, and Oklahoma State Cowboys on the road. Throw in a few other games, and I think we could be looking at another washed season for Oklahoma. It will come down to how efficient the offense can be, and how steadfast a Venables-made defense is, but my bet is another disappointing season.
13. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Fighting Irish will have all the opportunities to make a playoff push this season. Games against Ohio State, USC, and Clemson are all tall tasks, but it is about time Notre Dame finally started playing some top tier teams in the regular season. In the past, the Irish have snuck into the playoffs with a jokingly bad schedule, but this year there are no excuses. Bringing in top transfer QB Sam Hartman and stacking a strong defense may be key, but I have my concerns. Last year, Notre Dame went 9-4, with their best victories coming against Clemson and South Carolina, so I have trouble giving this team the nod to make it into the top 10. It comes down to if the Fighting Irish can beat two powerhouses in the USC Trojans and Ohio State Buckeyes. I think the Irish may steal one from the Buckeyes, but that typically means an ego-loss to an unranked team, keeping Notre Dame out of contention.
12. Clemson Tigers
Am I wrong in saying the Tigers have disappeared? Maybe not, but this team has certainly fallen off the radar a bit. Kind of weird for a team that went 11-3 last year, but the record does not show what this team really was, with several of those wins being complete toss-ups. That was last season, and this year, Clemson have three games (probably more) that I think are losses. These will be to Florida State, Notre Dame, and South Carolina, all of which will definitely be entertaining to watch. I am just not sure that Clemson can overcome what I would call “confidence issues”, but maybe I can be proven wrong by QB Cade Klubnik, Head Coach Dabo Swinney, and an experienced Clemson Tiger’s team.
11. Penn State Nittany Lions
The Nittany Lions have been scratching and clawing for the better part of a decade now, attempting to finally be atop the Big 10 and earn a playoff spot. I do not believe this season will be the year they finally do it sadly. Last year, the Nittany Lions had a solid record at 11-2, however this team changed every week, looking like one of the best one week and looking like a tragedy the next. Excitement surrounds QB Drew Allar, who finally took the reins from ten-year veteran Sean Clifford, and electric RB Nick Singleton. I would take a shot in the dark and say this team could upset the Michigan Wolverines at home, but I am not particular sold on that take. Road games against Ohio State, Michigan State, and Illinois will be what topples this team’s chances, but I expect a rebound and a probable playoff appearance in 2025. For now, Penn State will continue to take the back seat to the likes of Michigan and Ohio State.
10. Texas Longhorns
Has Texas ever really been back? No, and I am not entirely sure this team deserves a top ten spot, but I am acting as if the Longhorns won’t be a complete disappointment this season. With a record of 8-5 last season, the Longhorns are looking to bounce back with a healthier and deeper team. QB Quinn Ewers showed flashes of excellence before being injured in 2022, and he is back with speed-demon WR Xavier Worthy in what will be one of the top QB-WR duos in the country. Unfortunately for Head Coach Steve Sarkisian and company, there are several tough games that will sever a playoff bid. What I find hilarious is that Oklahoma and Texas both join the SEC next year, where the schedules will get even tougher. This season will show some promise, but the Longhorns ceiling reaches here at the top ten, which is my best finish for a Big 12 team this upcoming season.
Scary Teams that Might Sneak in:
Tennessee Volunteers, Oregon Ducks, Ohio State Buckeyes
9. Tennessee Volunteers
This is where the ranking truly begins, because these teams are all within reach. Though this team is the fifteenth favorite to make the playoffs, I believe the Volunteers will have another strong year behind QB Joe Milton who has an absolute canon for an arm. With Josh Heupel’s offense, this team will be a terrifying opponent for just about everyone they play. Last year, Tennessee went 11-2, only losing to Georgia and South Carolina. In the SEC East, the Vols will outgun most everyone the play… except for the two best in the SEC. Georgia travels to Tennessee this year, but the Vols will go on the road to Tuscaloosa, where Alabama will be waiting for revenge. These will be losses, throw in a road loss to Florida or Kentucky, and this team lands here at the 9 spot on my ranking. Now I am not totally counting this team out because I think they could win the East this year possibly, which would mean the Vols would have to face Alabama twice (regular season and SEC championship) … but who knows? Tennessee will have a talented team that would have to earn some tough victories, mainly against Georgia, but if they do that, this team has no ceiling. Maybe the Vols sneak into the final playoff spot after dropping one or two games.
8. Oregon Ducks
I am a hater of the Pac 12 conference, but I have to respect the fact that Oregon is the second-best team in the conference. The “legend” of SEC runaway QB Bo Nix continues this season after having his best college season yet in 2022. Head Coach Dan Lanning did a decent job last season, bringing the Ducks to a 10-3 record, though the beginning was an ugly 49-3 loss to the Georgia Bulldogs. When I began drawing this out, I had the Ducks at the 11 spot, but looking at their schedule for this upcoming season changed my mind. This Oregon team has what I would say are three “tough” games (as tough as it gets in the Pac 12): Road games against the Washington Huskies and Utah Utes and hosting the USC Trojans. Now the Trojans at home will be a battle for Oregon, one that I believe could get ugly, while the other two games are a bit easier. Do we live in a world where Oregon only loses one regular season game? I doubt it, but if they do, this team could be sitting right within striking distance of the playoffs, and anything can happen with a one-loss team.
7. Ohio State Buckeyes
You know, this team is a head scratcher. Ryan Day has been on fire in recent years (making the playoffs, not winning), and every year it seems as though the Buckeyes reload with new and exciting talented players. For some reason I would bet the house that this team will have a down year. The best college football WR, Marvin Harrison Jr., resides here, but there are several question marks about the QB position and the defense. Currently, Kyle McCord seems to be the favorite to win the QB battle, but this is a definite step back from recent players like CJ Stroud and Justin Fields. Looking at the schedule for this season, I see an early season loss to Notre Dame, followed by a weird loss on the road to the Wisconsin Badgers or Purdue Boilermakers. On a positive note, I have the Buckeyes over Michigan in the big rivalry game at the end of the season. It only makes sense the Buckeyes would bounce back after losing it to Michigan in recent years. Those two other losses would be too much for Ohio State to overcome in terms of making the playoffs, but I might have it wrong. My guess is that the Buckeyes will be on the outside looking in this season after dropping a few early season games.
On the Pulse:
LSU Tigers and Michigan Wolverines
6. LSU Tigers
This team could very well make the playoffs. Brian Kelly has turned the ship back around, having a 10-4 record in his first year with transfer QB Jayden Daniels, who looked like a star towards the back-half of 2022. Daniels threw and ran the ball with much ease, but injuries held him back late in the year. Wildly enough, the Tigers made a conference championship appearance last season after beating Alabama in an overtime nail-biter, and unfortunately that will be what holds this year’s team back. The Tigers will travel to the Crimson Tide, in what will be one of the better SEC matchups we watch this season. That will not be the only loss for this team, because opening weekend the Tigers travel to Florida State where the Seminoles will put on a show. I truly believe LSU will win every other game, but two losses are two losses, and it is a tough swing to get into the playoffs with more than one defeat. I say that to say this… LSU very well could sneak in under the right circumstances. Close losses to Florida State and Alabama would not totally tank the Tigers rankings, and say we have three two-loss teams vying for a final playoff spot. If that were the case, I am taking the Tigers all day.
5. Michigan Wolverines
I had a really difficult time filling this spot, but my gut tells me this is where the Wolverines will end up at the end of the season. There is also the fact that Head Coach Jim Harbaugh will probably be facing a four-game suspension from the University and the NCAA, although that matters little, with the first four games being at home against the island of misfit toys (East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green, Rutgers). QB JJ McCarthy returns after a decent 2022 season. Throw in the best RB duo in the country in Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum and a solid defensive return, and this Michigan team looks like a tough beat. Last year, Harbaugh and company went 11-1, drummed their rivals Ohio State, and secured #2 overall in the college football playoffs. Shockingly, the Wolverines fell to the Cinderella team that was TCU in disappointing fashion. This season, the Wolverines have what first appears as a breezy schedule, but a second glance brings question marks. For one this team travels to Michigan State, Penn State, and Nebraska. All of which should be wins, but I predict an upset somewhere in here, perhaps to Penn State. I would then almost guarantee another loss at the end of the season to the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Wolverines have gotten the best of the Buckeyes recently, but I expect a payback year in the works. So, I predict a two loss Michigan team that falls just outside of being selected for the playoffs… but make no mistake Harbaugh could very well get back into the playoffs. They just have to be better than one of the four I listed in the playoffs.
The 2023/2024 Playoffs:
4. Georgia Bulldogs vs 1. USC Trojans
3. Florida State Seminoles vs 2. Alabama Crimson Tide
4. Georgia Bulldogs
There is no doubt, this team is going to be really good again. Head Coach Kirby Smart has brought back-to-back college football playoff championships in the past two years, bringing conversations of a “new dynasty” to the forefront of the college football landscape. Normally I would say this is a farce, but I cannot argue with the facts. The Georgia Bulldogs are 29-1 in the last two seasons, the only loss coming in an SEC Championship to Bryce Young and Alabama. Smart has this team playing the best football of most everyone, led by a stout defense. That defense lost only five starters to the NFL Draft, but experience rarely matters on a Smart-led defense that plays to the talents of its players. So, looking at this season, the Bulldogs will more than likely sprint through a schedule that is a joke to look at if I am being honest. The most “difficult” games will come on the road to the Florida Gators and Tennessee Volunteers. I do not imagine a very close game with the Gators, but Tennessee is a different story. Last season, the game between the Bulldogs and Vols in Athens went Georgia’s way, but this year is in Knoxville. I still have Georgia winning this game again this season, but I believe that Vols offense will give Kirby Smart a headache. So, let’s say Georgia wins the regular season out… why are they here at #4? Well, I have the Bulldogs dropping their only loss coming to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship. That wont end playoff hopes for Georgia, but it will be enough to put them out of a top seed. As for winning the championship, I predict a hard defeat and no mythical three-peat will occur. The Bulldog’s TE Brock Bowers may be one of the top players in all of college football, but Georgia will have too many questions on offense to answer to put them over the top. A playoff spot though? Guaranteed.
3. Florida State Seminoles
Am I naïve for believing the Florida State Seminoles will be this high at the end of the season and make the playoffs? Maybe, but this team is going to surprise a lot of people this year. Head Coach Mike Norvell finally returned this team back into relevancy, going 10-3 on the season. With three close losses last season, Florida State was led by standout QB Jordan Travis in wins against LSU, Florida, and Oklahoma. This season, the Seminoles have a tough schedule to take on, leading off against the LSU Tigers once again. This game is in FSU’s territory and will be the most important game on the their schedule. Last year this matchup was a nailbiter that saw FSU win in the latter minutes, and I expect the same for this time around. After the Tigers, it gets no easier, as FSU goes on the road to Clemson and Florida… and give me FSU in both. Here is the thing, Florida State returns multiple starters on both sides of the ball, and with QB Jordan Travis being considered a Heisman contender, this team will be the best in the ACC this upcoming season. Clemson will be a close second, North Carolina is not up to par yet, and Wake Forest has lost its magic from recent years, so FSU is in prime position to take the crown and make a bid for the playoffs. There are questions, no doubt, but every year the college football season has a team that typically surprises everyone. Last year it was the TCU Horn Frogs, and this year my bet is it will be the Seminoles. My concern comes with a team’s ego that follows typically after getting hot. If Florida State can handle the quick success, this team will make the playoffs.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
In my years on this Earth, I have learned one very important thing about the world of college football… do not bet against Nick Saban and Alabama. The Crimson Tide have a bitter taste from the past two seasons, losing to Georgia in the National Championship in 2021 and entirely missing the playoffs in 2022. Normally I would say that losing the likes of QB Bryce Young and Edge Will Anderson would be enough to send a team into a multi-year rebuild, but the Crimson Tide seem to reload every year with new talent. Last year this team was on a “revenge tour”, ready to come back and make a run for it all, but road losses to LSU and Tennessee ended the Tide’s chances at a playoff appearance. It was a messy season for Bama, but 2023 will be a different story. The Tide have three massive games at home against Texas, LSU, and Tennessee, with the early matchup against the Longhorns the only one being of concern. The Longhorns looked ready to beat the Tide last season, with QB Quinn Ewers absolutely shredding Saban’s defense before going down with an injury. This season Ewers returns but will have to go into enemy territory. I give the Crimson Tide the win here in a close one, and beyond that it is a wash. Give me an undefeated Alabama versus and undefeated Georgia in the SEC Championship. It is always fun to see two top-5 teams duke it out in a conference championship, especially the Bulldogs and the Tide, and Bama will take the conference crown in 2023. Now I say this with the belief that the questions on offense will sort themselves out early in the season. A QB battle will take place, and as in years past, it will most likely go into the first few games to decide whether Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson, or one of the freshmen will win the job. Once that is sorted out, the whole thing, National Championship, and all, will be Alabama’s to lose.
1. USC Trojans
I mentioned earlier that I am a hater of the Pac 12 and let me tell you I had to bite my tongue putting the Trojans at the top spot in these rankings. As much as I hate it, I cannot dispute how good this USC offense is going to be this season. Caleb Williams is THE best QB in the country and will more than likely be the top pick in next year’s NFL Draft. In 2022 Williams eclipsed 4k yards and 45 TDs, and this upcoming season will be no different. Wideouts Zachariah Branch and Mario Williams will be terrifying to defend, and Head Coach Lincoln Riley is one of the top offensive minds in college football. I could go on and on, but you get the point, USC is legit on offense. In 2022, the Trojans went 11-3, disappointedly losing twice to Utah and to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl. Besides that, the Trojans stomped through the Pac 12 schedule with much ease, much like they will do in 2023. This upcoming season will be of ease to the Trojans for the most part. I say for the most part because there are road games against Notre Dame and Oregon, though I have the Trojans winning both with ease. The only thing that could get in the way of an undefeated season is the USC defense, which was abysmal last year, and the Trojans still only lost three times. I think the offense gets better in 2023, and even if the defense does not, USC could very well outscore every opponent they face in route to a playoff appearance. This could be the year of the Trojans, but I am not going to go that far. Whether they make it to the National Championship or not, I think the USC defense will handicap them from winning all the marbles. Regardless, the Trojan’s schedule is a joke, and it seems clear to me that they could be the #1 team come December.
2023/2024 National Champion: Alabama Crimson Tide
That’s right, the Crimson Tide will be back on top of the mountain. The past two seasons have yielded disappointing results for Saban and Alabama, and everyone is talking about the dynasty finally coming to an end. In the words of the great Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend!”. Since the beginning of the college football playoffs, Bama has made the cut all but twice. I am not sure Alabama has the best team, but I firmly believe they can compete with the likes of USC and Georgia this year. Besides it just makes sense. Every time that people start counting out the Tide, Saban strikes and wins a National Championship. So bet against Bama, but don’t blink when they are crowned as the champions.