As we approach the Super Bowl, the thought of looking towards the 2024 NFL Draft is in the back of a lot of football fan’s mind. Whether your team is still playing this Sunday or has been eliminated from playoff contention since November, you can’t help but think about looking towards the draft. What are your team’s needs? Who’s draft stock is rising? Who could fall and be a steal? All these story lines and more will be front page news by the end of February and into April and draft night. No other position will garner as much attention as that of the Quarterback. Multiple teams up and down the draft order will be looking to snatch up their next signal caller, even attempting to trade up to do so. The hope is that one of them, maybe more, will be the face of the franchise for at least the next decade. The reality is that many teams will be right back here in 2025 and 2026 looking for a QB again, as the carousel continues to turn as it always has. It is for that reason that I implore teams to consider this, don’t take a QB in the 1st round.
I can hear the hecklers and the rioters now. “Are you crazy?!?!”, “We need a QB and this class is stacked!!!”, “This guy is an idiot! So glad he isn’t in a GM spot!” but hear me out. When planning for a draft you must not only look at this year’s class, but next year’s as well. A draft strategy is not built with such a narrow-minded view. That is precisely what I have begun to do. I believe that this years draft class is loaded at the Tackle and Wide Receiver positions more than we may have ever seen in a single draft. Next years, based on PFF draft eligibility, is nowhere close to the talent at those positions. By not taking a chance to get these talents and instead vying for a QB or even mortgaging a teams future draft capital to obtain one would be a mistake. “But Joe, you said there was so much WR talent this year. Why can’t my team still draft a QB high and then get in on some of this talent?” Realistically if your team is drafting outside the top 5, you don’t have a shot at what most scouts and evaluators are calling the best QBs in this draft. That leaves you with Bo Nix who I believe is a sure fire bust, Michael Penix Jr. who has major injury concerns and is a pure pocket passer with limited mobility (a dying bread in the NFL), or insert late round guy here (my preferred option). Even if your team is in the top 5, I would still consider passing on a QB.
Teams like the Titans, Falcons, and Patriots who have a lack of WR talent, questions at the QB position, or both might need to consider this option. Although getting your guy under center is vital to a team, it is not the only thing you need. “But Joe, there are so many free agent WRs that could change a team around. Why risk it with rookies?” That’s a good question. It saves teams money to draft and develop their guys. The Houston Texans have a very young team, but it was a team that looks destined to rule the AFC South for years due to the cap flexibility they now have. They hit on their young guys. In this draft alone you could almost completely rebuild an offense with top performers and prospects. Guys like Marvin Harrison Jr, Rome Odunze, and Malik Nabers are just the tip of the iceberg. Xavier Legette, Roman Wilson, and Malachi Corley are all going on day two of this draft. There are maybe 9 or more WRs in this draft that can be day 1 contributors. I would say the same for the Tackle position. I believe these teams would benefit the most from passing on the Williams, Maye, and Daniels sweepstakes to get a mass influx of talent and aim for a guy like Spencer Rattler (Reese’s Senior Bowl MVP) or Taulia Tagovailoa (absolutely balled at the East/West Shrine Bowl) on day 2 or day 3. Pairing either of them with solid WR talent would take a team right back to playoff contention.
I get it, its not the pretty pick and its going to be met with criticism. The truth is that if you pass on trading back and getting as much of this talent as you can, there really won’t be much next year. The WR free agents could get tagged or be out of reach. At the end of the day, the best chance to get the talent you need is in the draft. Its cheaper. It allows for more flexibility in the future in free agency. It can turn a team around seemingly overnight. It probably won't happen and fans of teams who jumped up or took a reach on one of these QBs will look back and say they regretted buying the hype. To often we fans are stuck watching our team ride the QB carousel for another round. Why don’t we skip that high risk high reward ride this time? There are better ways to do it.