Predictions are the source to any sports writer’s foundation. I pride myself in watching, analyzing, and giving takes on sports, but more specifically, college football. The fandom, the pride, the excitement, and all that surrounds the game of football is magnified when two teams of collegiate students go head-to-head, and it is always fun to speculate on matchups and how things will unfold in the ever-evolving world of the sport. Back in August, I gave my first playoff predictor for the 2023-2024 college football season, giving my top 15 finishing teams, and the ultimate champion. This is a look back on where I missed originally, and how I think the current playoffs will go down heading into the thick of bowl season.
My Original Projected Finish Back in August:
15. Washington Huskies
14. Oklahoma Sooners
13. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
12. Clemson Tigers
11. Penn State Nittany Lions
10. Texas Longhorns
9. Tennessee Volunteers
8. Oregon Ducks
7. Ohio State Buckeyes
6. LSU Tigers
5. Michigan Wolverines
4. Georgia Bulldogs
3. Florida State Seminoles
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
1. USC Trojans
Where it Went Wrong: (The Teams I Missed the Worst On)
USC Trojans
This one hurts. Not that I am a fan of Lincoln Riley and the Trojans, but I truly did believe this team would be staggeringly good on the offensive end of the ball, to the point where teams would not be able to win a shootout against them. Partly, I was correct in assuming their offense would be spectacular to watch, but I was sorely mistaken in believing the defense would be better. It was so, so bad. Bad to the point where they let the defensive coordinator go midway through the season, though that move should have come before the season even started, because the Trojans let anybody who could breathe score touchdowns (yes, multiple) on them this year at an embarrassing rate. I said that even if the defense got worse, which I did not see how that could happen, USC could still outscore their opponents and win against the big opponents, but this was a bad take after Riley, Caleb Williams, and the Trojans sadly lost five games this year. Maybe next year for the trojans?
LSU Tigers
This team finished in the top 15, but I really believed this team would be more of a well-rounded team than they turned out to be. LSU, led by this year’s Heisman winner, Jayden Daniels, put on some amazing offensive displays, putting it on several big-time SEC teams who were not ready for the blitzkrieg that was the “Jayden Daniels Show”. Where their feet failed them was defense, as the Tigers allowed most every team to do a lot of damage on the scoreboard. Where I give this team credit is the fact that they could have lost several more games than they did. The issue going forward for Head Coach Brian Kelly is Jayden Daniels will be moving on to the big leagues, and there is a massive hole in the defense to fill in the form of being able to make stops. Finishing 9-3 and #13 on the season is respectable, but not where I had this team, as I expected one or two losses for the Tigers. This year was not Kelly’s year to make the playoffs, and I do not believe it will be coming soon.
Texas Longhorns
I said Texas was not back, and they proved me wrong, finally. The Longhorns put an impressive season together, only losing to the Oklahoma Sooners in a battle. Making the playoffs was far from what I envisioned for Sarkisian and Texas, but when they walked into Tuscaloosa and beat the Crimson Tide, I was shocked. Who knew they had it in them? Apparently, every Texas fan ever. Anyways, the Quinn Ewers experience has lived up to the hype, minus the health scares, and the biggest surprise for this team has been the defense, which has stood tall in trying games. Originally, I stated this team would lose some important ones down the stretch, but they did the job needed, and now the Longhorns will be playing in the College Football Playoffs.
Washington Huskies
To be fair, who really thought this team would finish as the second-best team in the country? It does not matter now because the Huskies are rolling and proved they should be in the playoffs, winning the games when it counted most. Michael Pennix Jr. finished as a Heisman finalist, and with a stacked wideout room, and a formidable defense, the Washington Huskies proved me wrong at every turn. Well sort of… You see the Pac 12 Champions did win all their games, but there were several games where the Huskies almost crushed their own chances. The State of Arizona’s teams did it twice, as Arizona and Arizona State both gave the Huskies all they wanted. But that matters little when Washington beat the Oregon Ducks not once, but twice, putting an explanation mark on who was the best team out West.
The College Football Playoff Top 10
10. Penn State Nittany Lions
9. Missouri Tigers
8. Oregon Ducks
7. Ohio State Buckeyes
6. Georgia Bulldogs
5. Florida State Seminoles
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
3. Texas Longhorns
2. Washington Huskies
1. Michigan Wolverines
Top Ten Superlatives:
Biggest Surprise: Missouri Tigers
Mizzou was on one this season, seemingly getting on a role and never looking back. Losing to Georgia was a given, but beating other teams like Tennessee and Florida were outright impressive. Luther Burden proved to be one of the best wideouts in the country, and Brady Cook was a marvel at times. Finishing second in the SEC East and top ten in the country by far exceeded expectations.
Oops I Did It Again: Penn State Nittany Lions
Death, taxes, and Penn State having another 10-2 season. The Nittany Lions are really good at doing that. Michigan and Ohio State are the big brothers, and there is nothing James Franklin can do about it apparently. To be fair, they did it to themselves. Penn State brought in Drew Allar to lead the team, and at times, he looked really good. Other times it was like they wanted him to play with one hand tied behind his back. Until they can get out of the shadow, we can expect the Nittany Lions to be a good, but not great team.
Biggest Fraud(s): Washington and Oregon
I have said it once, and I will say it again… the Pac 12 is the conference of jokes. All year there was a narrative of who would be the top Pac 12 team to win and get in the playoffs, and it turned out to be Washington, but it is so hard for me to accept it. It feels like every year the Pac 12 gets a team in the playoff, that team goes on to lose and get embarrassed because the level of talent in the Pac 12 is subpar to the rest of the country. Oregon and Washington “battled” several times this season, but what happens next year when they have to play the likes of the Big 10? I think we all know the answer.
Who Got Screwed: Florida State Seminoles
You know, the college football playoff committee is one of those questionable entities we may never understand. Florida State won, I repeat, won every game this year. 13-0. Now I am not saying they should be a top 4 team, that would go against my moral beliefs of who is actually worth a damn in the world of college football. The issue is why they were left out. Alabama is by far the better team, but the committee for years has chosen a less deserving team to get in based off record and achievements. If it were me, Florida State would have gotten in over Washington, but with it being the last year in the Pac 12, they could never do it. It is unfortunate, but the Seminoles will have their chance once the playoffs expand.
The 2024 College Football Playoffs
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines
Washington Huskies vs. Texas Longhorns
Prediction:
I love this playoff for one reason: The chance of redemption.
To start with Michigan plays Alabama in the Rose Bowl, in what is setting up to be a match of the titans as Nick Saban prepares to take on Jim Harbaugh. This should be a very good game, right? Well, I am not so sure. Here is the deal, Alabama has been thrusted into the playoffs for one reason, and that is to raise hell. The committee knows that Michigan did not begin playing actual football until November, and the Crimson Tide has been clawing and scraping their way back to the top, beating Auburn in dramatic fashion, and Georgia in the SEC Championship. It only makes sense the story keeps on going, so give me the Tide in the first matchup.
Score: Alabama 35 Michigan 13
Texas and Washington are supposed to be the “wash”, but nobody is fronting on the elephant in the room. Texas is a significantly better team than the Huskies and should beat Washington convincingly by two or three touchdowns, but I am not so convinced. I would believe that Washington knows what they are walking into, looking at the track record of past Pac 12 teams in the playoffs, so they are going to come prepared. Sarkisian will have the Longhorn’s offense humming, but I think this will be an absolute shootout. Give me Texas.
Score: Texas 45 Washington 42
Championship Prediction
There is one thing I know for sure in college football, and that is you are only allowed one win against Nick Saban per season. Texas did the damn thing when they came to Tuscaloosa and upset the Tide in week 2 this season, but that was then, and this is now. Alabama is a much different team, with QB Jalen Milroe and Offensive Coordinator Tommy Reese finally getting the offense clicking in the right ways, running and throwing the ball effectively on anyone. Not only that, but the Tide defense has been rocking and rolling on teams in the latter half of the season, so I do not expect another big game from Ewers and the Longhorns this time around. Like I said before, this is about redemption, and the Tide are going to redeem themselves by beating Texas in the natty like they did back in 2009. The Tide will roll.
Score: Alabama 31 Texas 20