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How to fix the roster, can they really pay Jaylen Brown, and where to go from here?

Boston sports fans have now witnessed two massive collapses at the hands of Miami based teams in their own house. TD Garden, once a symbol of greatness, is now the reminder of what could have and should have been for both the Celtics and Bruins. Burn some sage in that building, cleanse it of what ever demons, curses, hexes, and whatever else it suffers from. It won’t matter in the eyes and hearts of Celtics fans though as the wounds are too fresh. Now we must investigate the murky offseason as there is now a chance that Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are about to get signed to big contracts by the end of next season. The only question I have is should they?

Tatum was as consistent as you could be in the playoffs. He was unquestionably a star and one could argue a super star and probably get away with it. He only had 3 clunkers in which he scored 14 points or less, the lowest of those was 7 and they still won. Brown on the other hand was an absolute liability once the Miami series started. Turning the ball over, shooting abysmally from the field, and looking nothing like a player about to make $295 million on a super max extension. Was it the hand injury? Was the elbow playing into it? Or some combination of both plus fatigue? Whatever it was there are questions that require answers before that super max deal can be handed out.

Firstly, I believe that Brown is not the player his statistics show him to be. He is directly a product of Tatum’s play. Brown regresses without Tatum on the floor and so does the rest of the team. Offensive rating plummets almost 6 points when Tatum is on the bench and Brown is the focal point on the floor from 119.7 to 113.9. Tatum being on the court WITHOUT Brown sees the offensive rating climb to 121.2, which is 1st in the NBA in offensive rating (the 119.7 is also first). Long story short, Tatum and the Celtics are better offensively without Brown on the floor, and significantly better with Tatum on it. What about defense? When both Tatum and Brown are on the floor the defensive rating is an abysmal 114.6, good enough for 20th. When Tatum hits the bench that improves to 113.5, good enough for 14th. That seems like a knock on Tatum until you realize that when Brown is on the bench, leaving Tatum on the floor, the defensive rating jumps all the way down to 109.4, good enough for 1st in the NBA. The team is marginally better on offense without Brown (just under 2 points per game) but are drastically better on defense without him on the floor. Everything points to a player that is made better by the talent around him than he is by his own skills. Not worth $295 million as far as I am concerned. Brown isn’t the only issue this team faces however. More questions to be answered with the rest of the team.

Speaking of the rest of the roster, blame is needed as well. This team should have swept the Hawks. Instead, they found themselves in a dog fight that had to go 6 games. Probably could have closed the 76ers out in 5, I mean game 1 was played without Embiid. Instead had to go 7 games. Then there is the Heat series, which should never have required a game 7, yet the Celtics found themselves in a 3-0 hole they had to crawl out of. It was clear that the talent on this roster was above every team they played in the playoffs this season. When they were playing Celtics basketball and had off the ball movement combined with solid passing and providing open looks, they were untouchable. The issue was that they hardly ever played that style of basketball for 48 minutes. It is the same story from last year. Tatum and Brown lack the ability to take over a game when the team is looking lost. They lack the ability to say “look to me and I will carry us through this”. Tatum’s production was superb, but in critical moments in the Heat series, he was a no show. The same with Brown, even more so. The rest of the roster was the same. Marcus Smart, often the voice in the huddle and the jolt this team needs with his hustle and defense, was a ghost. Too often Horford was seen 6 to 7 feet underneath a screen leaving wide open looks for Heat 3 point shooters (Caleb Martin anyone?). Joe Mazzulla continued to play Brogdon even though it was clear he was an offensive and defensive liability with his forearm injury. Derrick White, outside of Tatum, was really the only consistent option the Celtics had. Without Whites contributions, both offensively and defensively, the Celtics probably go home well before game 7 even starts.

Then there is the bench. Outside of Rob and Grant Williams, the bench is non-existent. One could argue that the development of the bench and role players is really where the Celtics lost the Heat series. Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, Haywood Highsmith, and even the aging shell of Kyle Lowry outplayed Smart (Hustle Player of the Year), Brogdon (6th Man of the Year), Brown (All-NBA 2nd Team), and Al Horford. Mazzulla was SIGNIFICANTLY out coached by Eric Spoelstra, granted this was a little more expected based on the drastic experience disparity between the two. So where do the Celtics go from here?

I find it hard to believe that this team can compete for a championship while also paying two players north of $600 million by the end of next season. The Wizards attempted to pay Beal and Wall and never saw a finals. Now the Wizards are more likely to be in a lottery pick conversation than they are the playoff conversation. Is that where the Celtics want to be? I don’t think so. They need a player that can take over a game. They need guys who can show up consistently, not turn the ball over, and help Tatum do the heavy lifting. At times it has been Brown who was able to do that. The issue is that the last two playoffs, Browns ball security, decision making, and forcing nature of play have hindered the team and put more weight on Tatum to be otherworldly. Even if Brown cleaned up the ball security issues, learned to use his left hand, and could make a pass without his feet leaving the floor, I still do not see a way the Celtics can justify paying him $295 million. It would be one of the worst extensions in basketball.

Whether they pay Brown, trade him, or let him walk at the end of next season, there are still issues that need addressing. There are no easy answers. There are no one size fix alls waiting for the Celtics. It is clear that something has to change, but now all there is to do is sit down and watch the Finals and think about what could have been. They will be doing it like that the rest of us and they only have themselves to blame.

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