The crusade for a true No.1 wide out is ever ongoing for a lot of teams. Some will turn to the draft and others will hope to acquire one through a trade. In most years there is one or two available in free agency, but not this year. The best option on the free agent market right now is Jakobi Meyers. Don’t get me wrong, Meyers is a top tier slot option. He has a good understanding of routes, can identify the soft spots in zone, and has been the best wide receiver in a lack luster Patriots offense for some time. Unfortunately, he is not on the same level as the top available wide receivers in the draft or the big names available for trade. That leaves the teams looking for a sure fire number one either in the draft or trade. The real question here though is which option is the better one?
The top trade targets that are, or could be available as of the writing of this article are Deandre Hopkins, Brandon Cooks, Michael Thomas, and Tee Higgins. Each of these options provides a known commodity, but also a bit of uncertainty. Whether it is age, injury history, or attitude issues, each of these guys has shown they can be a legit option in the right system. Brandon Cooks has performed admirably in a lack luster Texans system with questionable/boarder-line terrible QB play. Tee Higgins ability has been overshadowed by the arrival of Chase, but there are a lot of questions about how his performance will be affected when he becomes the best option in the wide receiver room. Thomas and Hopkins both have had great seasons in their career, but both have had recent injury history and the best ability is availability. Then there is the money to consider.
Most of these guys are closer to 30 than they are to 20 and are costing closer to $20 million a year than they are $10 million (with the exception of Higgins). Of course the contract situations means that these guys would cost less in a trade. None of them should require anything over a 3rd round pick, outside of Higgins who’s contract and age are outliers in this group. The issue is that without a new contract, most of these guys are short-term rental options. This might be worth it for a team that is out of the range of getting a guy like Johnston out of TCU, Smith-Njiba of Ohio State, and other mid first round guys. The real question is are they worth it. Not every aging wide receiver acquisition works out like Randy Moss to the Patriots. In fact, sticking with the Patriots comparison, they more closely resemble Chad Ochocinco. Aging guy who can’t adapt to the new offensive scheme and terminology, ultimately regressing to the point that they are cut or retire.
Of course the draft isn’t a sure thing either. This draft in particular has been seen by many as having a lot of wide receivers, but none of them really popping off the page or being true game changers. Quentin Johnston has all the measurables to be an outstanding receiver in the NFL, but how often do measurables often end up not translating? It is a risk, to take a guy in the first round at a position that on the college football field can look other worldly, only to find out he was taking advantage of poor play on the other side of the ball. Smith-Njigba played in the Big Ten, and even though I am a Big Ten guy, the speed of secondaries is rather slow in comparison to say the SEC. Similarly Johnston played in the Big 12, which was also the biggest knock on TCU as they headed into the college playoff. Just to give more facts to this argument, consider that out of all the college football talent only 1.6% will ever see an NFL roster. Doesn’t instill confidence to put your faith in drafting a No. 1 wide receiver in the first round and hoping he actually becomes a No.1, instead of being N’keal Harry.
Even with all the risk, I would still draft a wide receiver over trading for an expensive aging veteran. Specifically for comparison, if I had a choice of drafting Quentin Johnston in the mid range of the 1st round or trading a 3rd for Deandre Hopkins, I am taking Johnston. His contract over 4 years would equal what you are paying Hopkins for one year. Salary cap flexibility and team building purposes really making drafting a potential No.1 more appealing to me. I would even go as far to say that nine out of ten times, I would draft a guy over trading for him. The only exception? If I am in win now mode and need that one guy to put the team over the top. Lets be real though, if you are drafting in the first 15 picks of the draft, you aren’t really a wide receiver away.
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